Realtors Predict Housing Rebound in 2024
Despite the recent challenges faced by the real estate industry, the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) chief economist, Lawrence Yun, has predicted a 13.5% increase in US housing transactions for 2024. While this may signal a positive change, sales are still expected to lag behind the pandemic-era boom.
Factors Contributing to the Rebound
Yun’s prediction comes after two years of difficult times for the real estate industry, with a 20-year high in mortgage rates leading to a 32% drop in existing home sales. This has negatively impacted the income of many real estate agents. However, several factors are expected to contribute to the rebound in 2024:
- A decrease in mortgage rates, with Yun expecting the 30-year mortgage rates to drop below 7% by next spring’s busy homebuying season, averaging between 6.1% and 6.6% in 2024.
- An increase in the pool of sellers, as many homeowners who have been waiting to move will eventually put their homes up for sale, even if they don’t want to give up their current low mortgage rates.
- Life changes such as new babies, marriages, and people turning 65 will contribute to an increased demand for housing.
Positive and Negative Economic Indicators
Yun has also observed signs of economic distress alongside positive indicators for the economy as a whole. While the economy is growing at 4.9% this year, business growth has remained essentially flat due to high borrowing costs. Credit card delinquency rates are at historically low levels but are starting to rise, and the historically low unemployment rate is now at its highest level in two years. Yun states that while the economy may not be in a recession, it could fall into one if these trends continue.
Overall, the predicted rebound in the US housing market in 2024 may signal better times ahead for the real estate industry. However, it’s important to remain cautious and monitor the ongoing economic trends and challenges that could impact the market in the coming years.
Orginal article: Link To Article – provided by Kansas City Realtors